The main activities of the Numerical Modeling and Climate Dynamics Division

The development and maintenance of the HAWK (Hungarian Advanced WorKstation) visualisation system and the corresponding grid editor. The HAWK system is capable for the complex visualisation of meteorological observations and forecasts. The grid editor software is designed for the graphical interaction of bench-forecasters to the automatically produced forecasts.

The development, maintenance and application of ultra-short range (until 12 hours forecasting time) and short-range (1-2 days) high resolution limited area numerical weather prediction models: active participation in the ALADIN international cooperation.

• The local operational exploitation of the ALADIN/HU version of the ALADIN model.

• The further development of the ALADIN three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3d-var) scheme with special emphasis on its temporal extension.

• The further development of the ALADIN modelling family into the AROME model. The AROME limited area model is going to be built from the non-hydrostatic dynamical kernel and three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme of the ALADIN model together with the physical parametrisation package of the meso-NH French research model. The operational introduction of the AROME model is anticipated in 2008.

• The research and development of the short range ensemble prediction system (LAMEPS) based on the ALADIN model. The main objective of the LAMEPS research is the better probabilistic short range prediction of extreme meteorological events (as heavy precipitation and windstorms).

The processing and optimal application of the medium (2-10 days) and seasonal range forecasting products of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) received on the basis of our cooperating membership.

• The interpretation and local use of the deterministic and ensemble (EPS) products of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS).
• The local application of the ECMWF coupled atmosphere-ocean model for seasonal forecasting.

The development of methodology needed for regional climate simulations and the dynamical meteorological study of the potential climate change: regional climate modelling (REMO and ALADIN/Climate models). The main objectives of the development are the dynamical meteorological study of the past climate over the Carpathian Basin and projections for its future evolution.

The objective and subjective verification of the applied numerical weather prediction models. The main motivation of the verification developments is the realization of the uniform, comparative evaluation of the forecast quality (based on the comparison of forecasts to observations) of the different models.

The understanding of the systematic error sources of the applied numerical weather prediction models and their correction with special dynamical and statistical post-processing (adaptation) procedures.